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Cinderhouse: Unit Economics (Evidence-Based Model) ​

Objective: Calculate the exact Cost of Goods Sold (COGS) and Gross Margin for the core market stall menu, Take-Home Tubs, and Ambient Retail, using real-world data (August 2026).

1. Core Hot Menu ​

🍔 Smoked Pulled Pork Bun ​

  • Cost: £2.10 (Avg) | £2.39 (Cons)
  • Sale Price: £8.00
  • Gross Margin: 73.8% (Avg) | 70.1% (Cons)

🧀 Loaded Smoked Queso Nachos [V] ​

  • Cost: £1.50 (Avg) | £1.75 (Cons)
  • Sale Price: £7.50
  • Gross Margin: 80.0% (Avg) | 76.7% (Cons)

🌶️ Smoked Pitmaster Chili Bowl [VG] ​

  • Cost: £1.15 (Avg) | £1.35 (Cons)
  • Sale Price: £7.50
  • Gross Margin: 84.7% (Avg) | 82.0% (Cons)

🍱 Pitmaster Trio Platter ​

  • Cost: £2.75 (Avg) | £3.10 (Cons)
  • Sale Price: £12.00
  • Gross Margin: 77.1% (Avg) | 74.2% (Cons)

2. Take-Home Tubs (Cold-Chain Strategy) ​

Strategic Note: These are designed for customers to buy chilled, take home, and reheat. They are highly profitable and convert a single lunch purchase into a larger basket size.

🐖 500ml Smoked Pulled Pork Tub ​

  • Cost: £3.50 (Avg) | £4.10 (Cons)
  • Sale Price: £12.00
  • Gross Margin: 70.8% (Avg) | 65.8% (Cons)

🌱 500ml Smoked Chili Tub [VG] ​

  • Cost: £1.45 (Avg) | £1.75 (Cons)
  • Sale Price: £10.00
  • Gross Margin: 85.5% (Avg) | 82.5% (Cons)

🧀 300ml Smoked Queso Tub ​

  • Cost: £1.20 (Avg) | £1.45 (Cons)
  • Sale Price: £6.00
  • Gross Margin: 80.0% (Avg) | 75.8% (Cons)

3. Drinks & Ambient Retail ​

(Adjusted for realistic small-batch packaging/bottling)

🍋 Craft Smoked Lemonade ​

  • Cost: £0.50 (Avg) | £0.65 (Cons)
  • Sale Price: £3.50
  • Gross Margin: 85.7% (Avg) | 81.4% (Cons)

🧂 House Smoked Rub (150g Shaker) ​

  • Cost: £1.10 (Avg) | £1.20 (Cons)
  • Sale Price: £5.00
  • Gross Margin: 78.0% (Avg) | 76.0% (Cons)

🪵 Craft BBQ Sauce (250ml Bottle) ​

  • Cost: £1.20 (Avg) | £1.35 (Cons)
  • Sale Price: £4.50
  • Gross Margin: 73.3% (Avg) | 70.0% (Cons)

🔥 Spicy Mustard-Buffalo Sauce (250ml Bottle) ​

  • Cost: £1.20 (Avg) | £1.35 (Cons)
  • Sale Price: £4.50
  • Gross Margin: 73.3% (Avg) | 70.0% (Cons)

4. Phase 2: Nano-Brewery Beer (The Undercut Strategy) ​

(Assumes 440ml On-Demand "Crowler" Cans)

Strategic Note: Because we eliminate the supply chain, third-party canning fees, and distribution, we can aggressively undercut established competitor prices (£5.50+) while maintaining high margins.

🍺 440ml Fresh-Seamed Craft Ale/Stout ​

  • Packaging Cost: £0.50 (36p can/lid + 14p label)
  • Liquid Cost: £0.60 (Varies slightly by style)
  • Total Cost: £1.10
  • Aggressive Sale Price: £4.50
  • Gross Margin: 75.5%